中国经济发展面临的形势
China’s Economic Development: the Context and Trends
秋平
Qiu Ping
中国发展面临的有利条件强于不利因素，经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变。
The favorable conditions for China’s development outweigh the unfavorable factors, and the overall trend of economic recovery and long-term growth remains unchanged.
外部风险挑战有所增多。地缘政治风险加大带来外部不确定性，国际原油天然气供给可能进一步紧张，大宗商品市场价格波动加剧，对世界经济和通胀走势带来不利影响，对中国保障能源资源安全带来压力。
From an international perspective, external risks and challenges have increased. The rise in geopolitical risks has added to external uncertainties and could precipitate a further tightening of international supplies of crude oil and natural gas. This could lead to further fluctuations in the prices of bulk commodities, adversely affecting the global economy and inflationary trends, and exerting further pressure on China’s efforts to ensure its energy and resource security.
全球经济增长动能不足，国际货币基金组织预测2023年世界经济增长3%，2024年增长2.9%，明显低于疫情前（2000—2019年）3.8%的平均水平。全球金融市场风险持续累积，一些发达经济体政府债务规模屡创新高，持续加息下基准利率水平升至历史高位，部分发展中国家货币贬值加剧、资本持续外流、偿债难度增加，可能引发国际收支危机和主权债务危机。
The momentum for global economic growth is flagging, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting a growth of 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, considerably below the average annual growth rate of 3.8% in the pre-pandemic period from 2000 to 2019. Risks in global financial markets are mounting, with government debt in certain advanced economies reaching record levels. As interest rates continue to climb, benchmark rates have reached historic peaks. Some developing countries are facing further currency devaluations, sustained capital outflows, and mounting challenges in debt repayment, all of which could potentially trigger balance-of-payment crises and sovereign debt emergencies.
全球产业链供应链加快调整重构，全球产业链供应链本地化、区域化发展将更趋明显，区域价值链体系加快形成，中国全球产业链供应链地位面临削弱风险。
Global industrial and supply chains are being overhauled and reorganized at a rapid pace, with a discernible trend of localization and regionalization. With regional value chain systems rapidly taking shape, there is a risk of China’s position within global industrial and supply chains being diminished.
国内周期性、结构性矛盾并存。有效需求不足，外需恢复仍存在较多不确定性，稳定出口压力较大；居民就业增收预期偏弱，消费能力受到抑制；投资增长面临制约，房地产开发投资呈下降趋势，后续投资还将继续承压。
At home, our economy is affected by both cyclical and structural challenges. There is a shortfall in effective demand, and significant uncertainties surround the recovery of external demand, which is placing considerable pressure on our efforts to maintain stability in exports. Expectations for employment growth and income increases among residents are muted, which in turn is suppressing consumer spending. Investment growth is constrained, with real estate development investment exhibiting a downward trend. Pressure on investment is expected to persist.
部分行业产能过剩，一些领域存在重复建设，受订单不足、库存偏高、成本高企等影响，企业生存发展面临较大压力。一些领域风险隐患仍然较多，局部地区地方政府隐性债务存在风险隐患。
Certain industries are suffering from overcapacity, and redundant construction is evident in some sectors. Businesses are experiencing a lack of orders, elevated inventory levels, and sustained high costs, all of which are squeezing their ability to secure their survival and development. In some sectors, many hidden risks exist, and the hidden debts of local governments are posing latent risks in some regions.
个别行业金融风险跨国境、跨市场、跨领域传导的可能性明显增强，可能加剧国内股市、债市、汇市、期市、楼市波动。国内大循环存在堵点，制度型开放还需加力，全国统一大市场建设隐性壁垒仍待破除，要素有序流动仍受到制约。
The possibility of financial risks in individual industries spreading across borders, markets, and sectors has significantly increased, creating the possibility of greater volatility in domestic stock, bond, foreign exchange, futures, and real estate markets. Bottlenecks are affecting the domestic economy, and further efforts are needed to promote institutional opening up. Invisible barriers to the development of a unified national market remain to be dismantled, and the orderly flow of factors of production remains constrained.
中文责编：郝遥
英文责编：蒋雯燕
英文审校：王翠芳 聂悄语
监制：于波 岳劲松
友情提示
本站部分转载文章，皆来自互联网，仅供参考及分享，并不用于任何商业用途；版权归原作者所有，如涉及作品内容、版权和其他问题，请与本网联系，我们将在第一时间删除内容！
联系邮箱：1042463605@qq.com